Pelemahan Pasar Modal Buat Emas Bersinar Pada 2019 – Solid Gold

 

Solid GoldSolid Gold ~ Meskipun tidak mengharapkan untuk melihat lonjakan luar biasa di sektor logam mulia, analis di Citi mengatakan mereka suka membeli emas saat penurunan seiring risiko finansial dan geopolitik menjaga penawaran dalam aset safe haven pada 2019. Solid Gold

“Kami cukup bullish pada emas dalam jangka menengah. Meningkatnya frekuensi penarikan pasar ekuitas AS, pelonggaran QE secara bertahap, volatilitas pasar makro yang lebih tinggi secara keseluruhan, dan peningkatan risiko geopolitik semua seharusnya terus mendukung pembelian emas saat penurunan, “kata para analis.

Dalam skenario kasus dasarnya, bank melihat harga emas mendorong ke level tinggi $ 1.300 per ons tahun depan dengan harga rata-rata tahun di level $ 1.265 per ons. Namun bank juga melihat peluang 30% bahwa harga emas mendorong ke level $ 1.400 per ounce pada kuartal ketiga tahun depan dan rata-rata tahun di level $ 1.365 per ounce.

“Dorongan ke level $ 1.300-1.400 / oz tampaknya berkelanjutan jika ekuitas AS dan global memasuki pasar bearish atau ada dorongan substansial dalam sentimen EM dan penurunan dolar AS yang tidak diantisipasi terkait materi kesepakatan perdagangan AS-China pada 1Q’19,” kata para analis.

Ancaman terbesar terhadap pasar emas tetap dolar AS, menurut Citi. Namun, greenback bisa mengurangi faktor ke pasar logam mulia jika pasar ekuitas terus terdorong lebih rendah.

Menurut penelitian terbaru bank, ketidakpastian ekonomi bisa menjadi faktor terbesar untuk mendorong harga emas lebih tinggi tahun depan. Para analis mencatat bahwa rata-rata harga emas telah naik 7% ketika S&P 500 turun lebih dari 12%.

Saat ini, harga emas diperdagangkan di level tertinggi bulan Juni seiirng pasar ekuitas bermain-main di wilayah pasar beruang; S&P 500 turun hampir 15% dari rekor tertinggi yang terlihat pada bulan September.

Sumber: Kitco

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Although not expecting to see fireworks in the precious metals sector, analysts at Citi said they like buying gold on any dips as financial and geopolitical risks keep a bid in safe-haven assets in 2019.

“We are moderately bullish on gold over the medium term. The rising frequency of US equity market drawdowns, the gradual unwind of QE, higher overall macro market volatility, and elevated geopolitical risks should all continue to favor gold buying on the dips,” the analysts said.

In its base case scenario, the bank sees gold prices pushing to a high of $1,300 an ounce next year with prices averaging the year at $1,265 an ounce. However the bank also sees a 30% chance that gold prices push to $1,400 an ounce by the third quarter of next year and averaging the year at $1,365 an ounce.

“A $1,300-1,400/oz push seems sustainable if US and global equities enter a bear market or there is a substantial boost in EM sentiment and unanticipated US$ weakness on the back of a material U.S.-China trade deal in 1Q’19,” the analysts said.

The biggest threat to the gold market remains the U.S. dollar, according to Citi. However, the greenback could less of a factor to the precious metals market if equity markets continue to push lower.

According to the bank’s latest research, economic uncertainty could be the biggest factor to drive gold prices higher next year. The analysts noted that on average gold prices have risen 7% when the S&P 500 has dropped more than 12%.

Currently, gold prices are trading at their highest level in June as equity markets flirt in bear-market territory; the S&P 500 is down almost 15% from its record highs seen in September.

Source: Kitco

 

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